Pretty much anyone involved in any capacity in HVACR is aware that the world of refrigerants has begun its next evolution. At present, the ultimate and ideal vision is for new equipment to be charged with sustainable refrigerants like hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), which offer zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and a global warming potential (GWP) that is significantly lower than the legacy products they replace. I say “at present” because you can never be 100% sure with evolutions. Inherent in evolutions is the possibility that something even better will be discovered or innovated that raises the bar on that ideal. Or an unforeseen challenge or development may arise that takes that ideal down a half step for the sake of practicality and ensuring that, at the end of the day, the changes deliver the greatest possible benefit to the greatest number of people. But, for the most part, in terms of refrigerants, the industry is headed toward an HFO-centric — and more specifically, a low-toxicity, low-flammability A2L-centric — future. In a world that continues to demand and expect more, the criticality of these solutions is undeniable because of their environmental and performance advantages over existing alternatives.
Evolutions take time, and to be successful, they must be done strategically and realistically. This is why when people ask, “Dr. Chuck, when do you think the industry will be fully transitioned to next-generation HFO-based refrigerants?” I respectfully tell them that I don’t have an answer. The other reason I don’t give a definitive answer is because “deadlines” can cause panic. Imagine you own an HVAC shop with 100 or more customers operating on systems charged with R-22 or its common alternative, R-410A, a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC). Then someone tells you everything will be HFO-based by a certain date. Whether that date is a few years or several decades away, the thought of what your business would need to do can be overwhelming.