Under the IEA's "Reference Scenario," two-thirds of the new energy demand will be in the developing world, with China and India dominating the growth in demand. As a result, oil production will increase by 48%, coal production will increase by 59%, and natural gas production will double. Meanwhile, electricity generated from renewable energy will increase by a factor of six, mostly due to increases in wind and biomass power. Since the world's electrical demand will double in that timeframe, the percentage of power generated from renewable energy will increase from 2% today to 6% in 2030.
However, the IEA also sees an alternate possibility in which countries around the world pursue a more sustainable energy path. In the IEA's "World Alternative Policy Scenario," investment capital is shifted more toward demand-side measures, causing world energy use to increase only 43% by 2030. As a result, oil production increases by 32%, coal production only increases by 20%, and natural gas production increases by 80%. The alternative scenario yields energy-related carbon dioxide emissions that are 16% lower than in the reference scenario. Energy-efficient vehicles, appliances, lighting, and industries account for half of the savings, with the other half provided by a greater use of both renewable energy and nuclear power.