Decarbonization of the North America supply-side electrical grid requires that the demand-side market shifts from fossil fuel-source heating boilers and furnaces to electric-driven heat pumps. It calls for the most efficient innovative solutions spanning multiple sectors to drive the required indirect CO₂ emissions reductions. Heating buildings consumes the largest amount of energy and produces the highest CO₂ emissions. So, the focus is on planning for a resilient and efficient system that can provide affordable heat for all. To minimize investments, energy demand must be reduced by applying energy efficiency measures to buildings and optimizing the performance of technical building systems. There is also a need to establish efficient, decarbonized heating supply systems that put a focus on supply-side renewable energy. The nature of a renewable primary energy supply will force the demand and supply sides to become much more integrated. This will in turn call for new applications and technologies like demand-side flexibility and thermal or electrical energy storage. As an example of the potential, in the Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) studies 1 and 2, it has been shown that increasing district heating to cover 50% of the total heat demand, together with a 40-GW heat pump capacity, can address up to 15% of total heat demand. In periods with a surplus of renewable electricity, heat pumps are supposed to continue operating and use thermal storage to capture excess heat due to unused compressor capacity.
Large-scale heat pumps are estimated to produce 520 TWh/year with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 3 (see figure 2). Such an increase means they can better use alternative sources of heat like ground-source thermal heat and waste heat from data centers. At the same time, they can use intermittent renewable electricity.