In its “Annual Energy Outlook 2021” (AEO2021), EIA projects that commercial floor space will grow significantly over the next 30 years in the U.S.; however, energy use grows at a much slower pace. The EIA assumes wider adoption of commercial building sensors and controls over time and other factors, including energy efficiency gains and warmer weather, will all contribute to declines in commercial energy consumption to meet heating, ventilation, and lighting needs. Other commercial energy uses will increase. The EIA project an 8% decline in the energy intensity of commercial buildings by 2050 (a measure of energy consumed per square foot of floor space). Commercial floor space grows by 33%, and total commercial energy use grows by 22% between 2020 and 2050.
Offices, retail and service buildings, and schools collectively account for half of U.S. commercial floor space. The EIA estimates that these three building types consumed two-thirds of all energy used to heat commercial buildings in 2020.