One of the benefits of designing buildings for greater resilience is the ability to withstand and recover quickly from extreme events. A big complication in trying to achieve that goal is that buildings are designed for long lifespans — 50 years or more — and we are experiencing climate change that is already affecting the conditions under which a building must operate. Predicting the loads a building might experience today is difficult enough, but estimating what conditions might be like many years down the road is even more challenging.
Despite the enormous undertaking to provide robust predictions of future climactic conditions, many organizations are attempting to include the effects of climate change in their standards, guidelines, and codes. ASHRAE Standard 169, which provides climate information for use in the design of building systems, is referenced in multiple standards, including 90.1 for energy use in buildings and 189.1 for high-performance building design. Standard 169 is regularly updated, and climate change is affecting the heating and cooling loads required for buildings. For example, in the 2013 edition of 169, approximately 10% of communities in the U.S. changed climate zones. However, the data used in 169 is historical and does not presently include predictions of future changes.